On a positive note Earl is now down to a category 3 storm from a 4 (yesterday) on the Saffir-Simpson scale. With maximum sustained winds around 125mph he is still capable of strong damage. More good news he is not expected to make a direct hit anywhere along the U.S. coastline.

He is still going to create havoc along the North Carolina coast and our shorelines as well. Here's what to expect. Friday we will have rough seas with rip currents and tides running well above normal. By noon on Friday the rain moves in starting in Southern New Jersey first... it'll take until later Friday afternoon to reach the Eastern end of Long Island. From Friday evening until the 4 or 5 in the morning on Saturday we will be in the thick of this storm. By noon on Saturday the sun will be back and it'll be just a little bit breezy. The seas will continue to be rough throughout the day on Saturday and still a little rough on Sunday. By Saturday afternoon and throughout the day on Sunday we should have tons-o-sun.

Keep in mind that this is based on the current forecast path and is subject to change. But this comes from the best model information we have available. Come back tomorrow for another update.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

Early this morning Earl gained strength...he's now up to 145mph making him a solid category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Also early this morning Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Suffolk, Ocean, and Monmouth counties. Along coastal communites in these counties you can expect Tropical Storm force winds (39mph) to occur. The rest of our coastal communities are under a Tropical Storm Watch which means there is the potential for Tropical Storm force winds (39mph).

We think the main problem with this storm will be the wind and not the rain. The wind will push tides above normal, which could flood some low lying areas. The seas will pose the biggest problem since this is storm is coming at the begining of a holiday weekend and there will be tons of sun on both Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Even after the storm passes it takes a while for the ocean to calm down. At the onset of the storm the seas will be between 9 and 10 feet tonight. By Friday night the seas will peak at 15 feet. Here's the big problem the seas on Saturday will still run around 9 feet and on Sunday they'll run around 5 to 7 feet. So be careful with those beach plans.

We will keep you posted on the storm but that's what all of the latest models are showing. These storms can be fickle though!

Joe Punday and Linda Church

First off we did a video update on Earl on the main web site so check that out. Here I'm just going to hit what is important for the holiday weekend.

There are tropical storm warnings and watches in effect for portions of the Tri-State area. We expect the wind and rain to develop later this afternoon and be at its peak around 8:00 pm tonight. After that, the rest of our Labor Day weekend will be fairly decent.

The weather finally cools off and we'll even have sunshine for both Saturday and Sunday. Keep in mind if you are headed to the beach to enjoy the last bit of Summer there will be rip currents both days. Other than that enjoy and be safe.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

Finally some calm weather will over-take the Tri-State Area this week. The only thing note worthy about today's weather is the high temperature. We top out at 85 degrees today and the normal high is 77. The higher than normal temperature is due to the S-W winds bringing up the warmer air.

The wind direction shifts back to the N-W on Thursday bringing in the beautiful Autumnal air for the rest of the week. So Thursday through Saturday we only top out in the 70's.

A quick tropical note... Tropical Storm Hermine came ashore in Southern Texas this morning with winds of around 50mph. It will quickly weaken and head further inland from Texas Northward to Oklahoma bringing lots of rain.

I know we could use some heavy rain here but so far it's a mostly dry 5 day forecast.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

Boy, has it been dry. In New York City we have not seen measurable rainfall in 13 days. Add to that low relative humidity this afternoon and strong gusty winds and you have the makings of a Red Flag Warning. One has been issued for this afternoon throughout much of New Jersey. New Jersey isn't seeing much in the way of light showers this morning. A Red Flag Warning means conditions are ripe for fires to start easily and spread quickly. This is the type of weather when we start to see brush and forest fires.

Tomorrow the front, that is bringing the very light showers this morning, is out of here and we are left with blue skies, low relative humidity and gusty winds out of the North-West. That breeze will lower our afternoon high temperature from 85 degrees this afternoon to 75 degrees tomorrow. The cooler dry air last until the begining of the weekend.

Enjoy.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

The Department of Environmental Protection has issued a Drought Watch for the entire state of New Jersey. This is just their way of asking everyone to conserve water. If the dry weather continues the D.E.P. can upgrade the Drought Watch to a Drought Warning and put manditory restrictions on water usage.

New Jersey has had one of the hottest Summer's on record in addition to one of the top ten driest Summers on record. In the next 5 days there is no break from the dry weather with only showers coming in on Sunday afternoon.

The big change in today's weather is the drop in temperatures... almost 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. So it will feel more Autumnal the next few days.

Enjoy!

Joe Punday and Linda Church