The Department of Environmental Protection has issued a Drought Watch for the entire state of New Jersey. This is just their way of asking everyone to conserve water. If the dry weather continues the D.E.P. can upgrade the Drought Watch to a Drought Warning and put manditory restrictions on water usage.

New Jersey has had one of the hottest Summer's on record in addition to one of the top ten driest Summers on record. In the next 5 days there is no break from the dry weather with only showers coming in on Sunday afternoon.

The big change in today's weather is the drop in temperatures... almost 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. So it will feel more Autumnal the next few days.

Enjoy!

Joe Punday and Linda Church

Boy, has it been dry. In New York City we have not seen measurable rainfall in 13 days. Add to that low relative humidity this afternoon and strong gusty winds and you have the makings of a Red Flag Warning. One has been issued for this afternoon throughout much of New Jersey. New Jersey isn't seeing much in the way of light showers this morning. A Red Flag Warning means conditions are ripe for fires to start easily and spread quickly. This is the type of weather when we start to see brush and forest fires.

Tomorrow the front, that is bringing the very light showers this morning, is out of here and we are left with blue skies, low relative humidity and gusty winds out of the North-West. That breeze will lower our afternoon high temperature from 85 degrees this afternoon to 75 degrees tomorrow. The cooler dry air last until the begining of the weekend.

Enjoy.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

Finally some calm weather will over-take the Tri-State Area this week. The only thing note worthy about today's weather is the high temperature. We top out at 85 degrees today and the normal high is 77. The higher than normal temperature is due to the S-W winds bringing up the warmer air.

The wind direction shifts back to the N-W on Thursday bringing in the beautiful Autumnal air for the rest of the week. So Thursday through Saturday we only top out in the 70's.

A quick tropical note... Tropical Storm Hermine came ashore in Southern Texas this morning with winds of around 50mph. It will quickly weaken and head further inland from Texas Northward to Oklahoma bringing lots of rain.

I know we could use some heavy rain here but so far it's a mostly dry 5 day forecast.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

First off we did a video update on Earl on the main web site so check that out. Here I'm just going to hit what is important for the holiday weekend.

There are tropical storm warnings and watches in effect for portions of the Tri-State area. We expect the wind and rain to develop later this afternoon and be at its peak around 8:00 pm tonight. After that, the rest of our Labor Day weekend will be fairly decent.

The weather finally cools off and we'll even have sunshine for both Saturday and Sunday. Keep in mind if you are headed to the beach to enjoy the last bit of Summer there will be rip currents both days. Other than that enjoy and be safe.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

Early this morning Earl gained strength...he's now up to 145mph making him a solid category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Also early this morning Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Suffolk, Ocean, and Monmouth counties. Along coastal communites in these counties you can expect Tropical Storm force winds (39mph) to occur. The rest of our coastal communities are under a Tropical Storm Watch which means there is the potential for Tropical Storm force winds (39mph).

We think the main problem with this storm will be the wind and not the rain. The wind will push tides above normal, which could flood some low lying areas. The seas will pose the biggest problem since this is storm is coming at the begining of a holiday weekend and there will be tons of sun on both Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Even after the storm passes it takes a while for the ocean to calm down. At the onset of the storm the seas will be between 9 and 10 feet tonight. By Friday night the seas will peak at 15 feet. Here's the big problem the seas on Saturday will still run around 9 feet and on Sunday they'll run around 5 to 7 feet. So be careful with those beach plans.

We will keep you posted on the storm but that's what all of the latest models are showing. These storms can be fickle though!

Joe Punday and Linda Church

On a positive note Earl is now down to a category 3 storm from a 4 (yesterday) on the Saffir-Simpson scale. With maximum sustained winds around 125mph he is still capable of strong damage. More good news he is not expected to make a direct hit anywhere along the U.S. coastline.

He is still going to create havoc along the North Carolina coast and our shorelines as well. Here's what to expect. Friday we will have rough seas with rip currents and tides running well above normal. By noon on Friday the rain moves in starting in Southern New Jersey first... it'll take until later Friday afternoon to reach the Eastern end of Long Island. From Friday evening until the 4 or 5 in the morning on Saturday we will be in the thick of this storm. By noon on Saturday the sun will be back and it'll be just a little bit breezy. The seas will continue to be rough throughout the day on Saturday and still a little rough on Sunday. By Saturday afternoon and throughout the day on Sunday we should have tons-o-sun.

Keep in mind that this is based on the current forecast path and is subject to change. But this comes from the best model information we have available. Come back tomorrow for another update.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

Major Hurricane Earl is now starting to hint at making a more Northerly turn. This turn is key for us as it will determine how close to the East coast this storm will get.

Right now our area should be prepared for strong gusty winds, heavy rain and tides running above normal from late Friday to late Saturday. The closer to the coast you live the more likely it is that you will see an impact from the storm.

Currently Earl has maximum sustained winds at 135mph. This puts him up at a category 4 storm capable of severe damage. As a comparison Hurricane Andrew was a category 5 when he came ashore to the South of Miami, and Katrina was a category 3 storm when she came ashore near New Orleans 5 years ago. Both of these hits were direct. Right now we should just get swiped by the Western-side of this storm. This is generally not the strongest part of a hurricane or tropical storm. The North-East quadrant is where ther strongest winds and storm surge generally occur.

At this point we will keep a very close eye to see a clear turn to the North which will help clear up the exact track of Earl.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

This weekend it was Hurricane Danielle churning up the seas and causing dangerous rip currents. Next weekend it will be Hurricane Earl.
The latest models on Earl are bringing him a little closer to the Eastern seaboard as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 125mph. Right now Earl is at respectable 105 mph sustained winds making him a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. He is impacting the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Virgin Islands (U.S. & British). This is not a direct hit but these countries are seeing the effects from this dangerous storm.
As Earl climbs the Eastern seaboard this weekend, he should be just off our shores on Friday. At that time he'll likely bring dangerous rip currents, plus he has the potential to bring heavy rain and winds to the Eastern end of Long Island.
These models are going out several days so keep in mind the confidence level in the forecasts drops over time. This is a major storm near our coasts so I will continue to update this all week long and keep you posted.
My main area of concern is the Eastern End of Long Island. This area could get swiped by the backside of the storm on Friday. Also all area beaches will have strong rip currents.
Joe Punday and Linda Church

First I have to thank Joe Punday for managing the blog alone while I was on vacation. Usually we both write and edit each other... so here's a big "Thanks Joe".

Now for the great weekend weather. Today a quick, very weak cold front comes through. It should be mostly dry since this front is so wimpy. Still, though you can't rule out a sprinkle when it comes through around 11am. Mostly you'll just see a couple of clouds. This front will move through N.J. before 11am and it'll take until 1pm before it clears the Eastern end of Long Island.

The best part of this front is what moves in afterwards. Nice strong Canadian high pressure. This brings drier air that feels fresh, even a bit autumnal! The longer this high pressure stays around the more it takes on local characteristics. So each day it becomes warmer and more humid. The high Friday just 80 degrees...by Sunday we should be back up to 90 degrees.
Since the end of Summer is fast approaching try and squeeze in you last minute outdoor fun.

We are also keeping an eye on both Hurricane Daniellle and Tropical Storm Earl which are churning in the Atlantic. Danielle is no threat to the Eastern coastline, however, it will generate strong rip currents for our beaches by the end of the week. Earl is still moving Westward so it still bears watching on exactly when and if it will affect land.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

By the way it feels great to be home again! :)

So we have had to endure some cool and damp weather the past few days. But, we did need the rain (as Central Park is still over 3 inches below normal in rainfall for the summer). Clouds and light rain will continue to fall for the rest of the day and then we transition to some nice weather to finish the week and go into the weekend.

By Friday, high pressure will bring tons of sun and pleasant temperatures to the Northeast and this will last through the weekend and into early next week. The only situation that we will have to keep an eye on is the beaches later in the week as Hurricane Danielle moves into the North Atlantic. This may produce strong rip currents along the beaches, so be careful if you venture into the water.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

The past two days have brought something that the Tri-State Area has not seen much of this summer, below Normal Temperatures. Our high on Sunday was 80 degrees, which was two degrees below the normal of 82. Yesterday we only made it to 70 degrees which was twelve degrees below normal. This will continue the next two days as a stubborn area of low pressure pushes moisture and cool air from the Atlantic Ocean on top of us.

Later in the week a front will move through the region and push our low pressure out of the area. This will also bring much drier air which will make for a good weekend forecast.

One other point, Hurricane Danielle is now packing winds of 100 mph which makes it a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Right now it looks as if the storm will stay offshore as it moves into the North Atlantic. The only effect we will feel is strong rip currents on the Eastern Seaboard. So be careful when going to the beach this week.

Joe Punday & Linda Church

It looks we are on a roll with the beautiful weather for the weekends this summer. After the front clears the area later this morning, we are in store for a noticable drop in the "Dew Point" temperatures.

As we have written in the past, the dew point plays an important role in the way the air feels. The lower the dew point temp, the lower the humidity, the more comfortable it will feel. This weekend we will have dewpoints in the low to mid 50s (as opposed to the low to mid 70s) that we experienced over the past few days.

It will be a good weekend to make outdoor plans, especially barbecues and swimming. Speaking of BBQ, our next installment of Linda's will be in NJ tomorrow morning. As always, it should be a fun morning with lots of interesting folks, so be sure to tune in and watch for that.

Enjoy the weekend...

Joe Punday & Linda Church

We could sure use some rain in New York City. So far this month we've only seen about one-third of an inch of rain. We should have had around two inches so far in August, so we are running low. Today most of the rain passes to the South and East of the city. In New York City we will be lucky to get a quarter-of-an inch.

So far this dry weather is starting to push the trees towards Fall a little early. During abnormally dry periods (like we have seen this summer) the trees will push their sap down early and attempt to go dormant as a means of survival. So this year, don't be surprised to see the colors come early to the Northeast. Also, the peak colors will not last as long this year as the leaf drop usually occurs rather quickly.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

Personal note... I am leaving for vacation this afternoon and will be back in a week. Joe Punday will be running the blog all alone. :(

This morning most of the showers have moved to the South of the city. These showers are associated with a cold front that will stall just South of the Tri-State Area. Since the front is so close by you can not rule out a chance of a shower. These showers will not be anything like yesterday's strong storms... just an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

The resevoir levels are still running low. Right now they should be up around 88 percent of capacity, however they are just at 76 percent. So any rain over the next couple of days is much needed.

Enjoy the day... we will top out at 90 so it is still a hot one!

Joe Punday and Linda Church

Widespread showers this morning are now on their way out to sea.
This afternoon get set for another round, but this time the storms could turn severe. So far this August we've only seen around a quarter of an inch of rain, so these showers are much needed. Also at this point in August we are the third hottest on record. So a little rain to hold down the air temperture and fill up the reservoirs will help out. If you get caught in a severe storm just go inside and wait it out.
Joe Punday and Linda Church
Also just to keep you updated... there is NOTHING going on in the tropics. We are now heading into prime time hurricane season so this could change, but for now all is calm.

Today finally we'll get some rain. Most of it will be centered in New Jersey. The center of low pressure, which is bringing the rain, is diving to South and taking most of the rain South of the city. So far in August we've on had .02 of an inch of rain in Central Park so any rain is a welcome.

Another positive, today's high temperature will only hit 84 degrees. Normal high is 83 so that's today we are getting closer to normal.

For the weekend it's a real beauty. Not only sunny but the high in the low 80's. Enjoy what is now one of the last weekends of the summer season!

Joe Punday and Linda Church

Notes... Tropical depression number 5 died in the Gulf of Mexico. Not much going on in the tropics right now. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration just released an update to the Atlantic Hurricane season. After a relatively quiet season thus far, NOAA is continuing to forecast high activity for the next few weeks. Keep in mind that NOAA and others have forecasted a lot of storms up to this point, however we have yet to see that happen.

June started and the rain stopped.

Here's how the numbers break down. Normal rainfall for June 3.84 inches, we only had 2.2". That means we are down by 44%. The month of July we were (oddly enough) also down by 44%. Normal rainfall for July is 4.62 inches, we only had only 2.6 inches. August is the worst. We are down 98.5%. Normal rainfall for August at this point is 1.4 inches and we have just had .02 inches.

So since Joe and I like math, we figured out how far off we are to this point in the summer. The answer is we have only had 49% of the rain we should have so we are officially down 51%.

Please feel free to check our math and blog back! There are many ways to do this problem!

Please show your work ;) Enjoy!

Joe Punday and Linda Church

By the way in the Gulf of Mexico we have a tropical depression called "tropical depression number 5" (The National Hurricane Center numbers them). Right now maximum sustained winds are at 35mph. At 39mph this would become our next tropical storm and the name would be Danielle. Currently this storm would come ashore on the Louisiana coast tomorrow as a weak tropical storm or just a tropical depression. This would bring them some extra rain and wind but this is by NO means a big or major storm and should NOT cause severe damage.

Let's start with the positive... at least we are getting some rain today. It's been dry side since Summer began and a lot of yards need the help so the rain today will be the positive.

Now for the persistant problem this Summer... 90 degree days. At the start of the day today this Summer we have had 26 days where the high temperature has hit at least 90 degrees. In a typical Summer we hit 90, fifteen times. In the record setting years of 1991 and 1993 we hit 90 or better 39 times. So far this Summer continues to fall into our much above average temperature range. Tomorrow we will be very close to 90 degrees yet again.

Good news by the end of the week...on Thursday we should be stuck in the 80's and a refreshing air mass will dominate once again this weekend making for another opportunity to enjoy the great outdoors.

Joe Punday and Linda Church

More notes... two areas of potential tropical storm development. One in the Gulf of Mexico... the National Hurricane Center has put the chance of an area of showers and thunderstorms off of the S-W coast of Florida at 50% of becoming the next tropical system.

Another area of showers and thunderstorms in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean has been given a 70% chance of becoming the next tropical system by the National Hurricane Center. If either of these storms develops we will let you know. (By the way the next named storm will be called Danielle.)

It's August... also known as the dog days of summer and today it will truely feel that way.
This afternoon the high temperature tops out at 90 degrees. Problem is, the humidity, it will be way too high making it feel as hot as the mid 90's. Tomorrow the heat and humidity remain but at least a few showers will get into the forecast. Those showers are associated with a cold front that makes its way through tomorrow. This front will usher in some slightly cooler air behind it for Wednesay. The high on Wednesday is just in the mid 80's... which is more on target for this time of year.
A couple of notes... weather for the Yankee vs. Red Sox game is warm but it should be a great day to go to the game.
In the Atlantic, another tropical system is brewing. Right now, it is just a semi-organized area of showers and thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center says it has a 70% chance of becoming our next named storm. We are now on the "D" storm so this would be called Danielle.
Hurricane season is the busiest from the end of August through the first half of September. We will keep you posted on any activity.
Joe Punday and Linda Church

Hang in there today. This afternoon we have the heat and humidity. The heat index in the city this will approach 100 degrees. That's how hot it's going to feel since the humidity throughout the day will range between 75% and 85%.

By the end of the day everything changes. A cold front passes through kicks of the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms. That marks the end of this hot and humid air mass and will introduce a beautiful cooler and drier Canadian airmass. This air mass will dominate throughout the weekend bringing another incredible weekend.

Joe Punday & Linda Church

p.s. We are still keeping an eye on the remnants of Colin in the Caribbean, there is about a 40% chance that the storm can re-intensify into a Tropical Storm by the weekend. This could affect the rip currents along our shores. Be sure to check before venturing out in the water this weekend.