This is the question on everyone's minds as we get more and more pictures in of devastation. Staten Island. Brooklyn. Queens. So many of our great neighborhoods with damaged homes, destroyed businesses and blocked roads.

But does it even matter?

Straight-line winds could've been the culprit. This from a very fine weather website called theweatherprediction.com :

Straight-line wind damage will push debris in the same direction the wind is blowing (hence the creation of the term straight-line). Tornado damage will scatter the debris in a variety of different directions since the winds of a tornado are rotating violently. This type of survey can be used to determine if straight-line wind occurred instead of a tornado or vice versa. Straight-line wind intensity can be as powerful as a tornado.

My point is this: There are so many of our friends and neighbors will major problems on their hands from a devasting storm. Insurance, (if purchased and up to date) only covers so much. There are people in need. My opinion? It's more important to find out how we can help, rather than dwell on whether the winds circulated or not.

Yours in weather,
Chris Knowles

As I type this, we are fine tuning our 5 day forecast for the 10pm show. And for the first time in a very long time, we are NOT forecasting a single 80 degree day.

We are transitioning into a period of Fall-like weather patterns. This transitional state is a sometimes difficult one to forecast. The sophisticated computer models we use to provide you with the most up to date and accurate forecasts have a tough time dealing with changes in weather patterns. We rely heavily on our own pattern recognition. For example, we know how fronts and air masses move this time of year, and how the jetstream operates.

Right now, there's an area of low pressure (spinning counter clockwise) in New England that's helping to pull cooler air down from Canada. Several shortwaves or impulses will rotate out of this, keeping clouds in the area. We look to warm up Saturday, but again, not seeing any heat waves any time soon.

Yours in Weather,
Chris Knowles

We already knew that this Summer was the hottest on record for Central Park. Previously, the hottest Summer was in 1966. The average that year was 77.3 degrees. We did 77.8 this year. While Summer from a meteorologist stand point ends at September, our weather isn't conforming.

Today (sept 8) we reached an afternoon high of 90 degrees. That is the 37th day this year that we have hit 90 or above. The average number of 90 degree days is 15. The all-time record is 39.

We're also dry from a climate point of view. Since June first, we've received nearly 9 inches of rain. However, the average is closer to 14 inches. That's at Central Park. At Laguardia airport, it's even worse. They've only received about half of their usual rainfall for the Summer.

Now get this. For the year, Central Park is almost exactly average. Huh? Remember rain is only one form of precipitation. Anyone remember all the snow? That is the difference maker.

Yours in weather,
Chris Knowles

First the "good" news. Hurricane Earl has weakened, to a Category 1 storm with max. sustained winds at 85 mph. It will continue to weaken as it moves fast into cooler waters. The tropical storm watch for areas around the western Long Island Sound is now discontinued.

BUT.......... Earl is still more than 400 miles wide. This is a very large storm. Let's not let down our guard, for now. Eastern Long Island is still a concern, with beach erosion and flooding concerns.

I'll have more updates live on wpix.com this afternoon.

Yours in weather,
Chris Knowles

Hurricane Earl is still a large and dangerous storm headed for the U.S. Atlantic seaboard. Here is the first U.S. notice from the National Hurricane Center. I'll have more info after the scary all caps portion.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

So... we are certainly in the "northward to new england" part. Even though the center of Earl is forecasted to pass south and east of Long Island, we still have plenty of concern. It is large by hurricane standards, with tropical force winds extending some 200 miles from the center. These winds could last hours. And we've already talked about the high surf and severe rip tides. No one wants to hear this on the last unofficial weekend of Summer but you put yourself at risk swimming at Atlantic beaches later this week.

As I sit here (Tuesday night), it looks like Hatteras gets a good pounding from tropical storm force winds, and so will southeastern Mass. later on.

Lets keep in touch and keep safe.

Yours in weather,
Chris Knowles

The latest on Hurricane Earl (Monday night) --- CAT 4 with maximum sustained winds at 135 mph. It's moving West/Northwest tonight, and will take a more northwesterly path tomorrow. Earl will move away from the Virgin Islands tonight, and past east of the Turks and Caicos tomorrow night. So far, it has not had a major landfall.

It is still moving through warm water, and is still in a low shear environment; that is there are no upper level winds to tear it up. Therefore, I believe Earl will become stronger tomorrow.

That strengthening will end as Hurricane Earl turns north into cooler water, and as it will encounter high wind shear.

Right now, it still looks like the center or eye of Earl will move east of Long Island on Friday. The dangerous northeast quadrant of this dangerous storm will be farther from shore and that is certainly a good thing. BUT --- Long Island could still see tropical storm force winds and we must monitor this very closely. Rip tides will be deadly. We'll be here for you on the tv and on the web. Follow me @chrisknowles11.

Yours in weather,
Chris Knowles

Where is it?

As of Sunday --- Hurricane Earl is 100 miles East of Barbuda, has winds of 85mph and is moving WNW at 14 MPH. It will become a major hurricane on Monday. Remember it can gain strength like this while SSTs (sea surface temps) are 80 degrees or better. That won't be the case as Earl moves north.

How about it's size?

Hurricane force winds extend 45 miles from its center. Tropical force storms winds extend outward 175 miles. This is important to remember as Earl moves closer to Long Island. Which leads us to...

WILL EARL HIT NEW YORK?!?!?

The short answer is not directly. First, a quick run through of weather patterns that will help answer that question. We have a large, continental air mass (warm, dry high pressure) over us that will move eastward, which then will allow Earl to move in a more northerly direction. Secondly, an upper level trough and a cold front will begin to move from the Great Lakes region toward us. It is this feature that will most likely move offshore in time to push Earl east.
NOTE: WE ARE VERY EARLY IN THE FORECASTING PROCESS. There's your fudge factor.

At the minimum, I expect we'll have high seas, high surf and a high risk of rip currents late this week. Again, we're early on, and Earl's path is subject to change.

Best thing to do? Keep it on pix11, and wpix.com. I'll post the latest for you as I get it. Hang in there.

Yours in weather,
Chris

Newly strengthened Danielle is cruising at 17 mph in the middle of the Atlantic. She likely will become a major hurricane -- a CAT 3 with winds of 115 mph -- by Wednesday afternoon.

And so now the tracking questions -- will it hit land? Right now it looks like it stays east of Bermuda, thanks to that upper level trough that is making our weather here in Gotham so miserable.

This was predicted to be an active season. It hasn't been ... so far. But we are entering what is typically a more active period generally speaking. So even if Danielle misses the east coast, stay tuned. Things could get interesting.

Yours in weather,
Chris Knowles

So how 'bout this weather?

That's the weatherman's "hello." I can tell you I'm totally down with it, and ALWAYS lay out the forecast for anyone who asks, anytime. And invite them to visit wpix.com, naturally. Thing is -- the right answer isn't always the right answer.

For example, if you ask, I'll tell you our temperatures will hover around 70 degrees for the next couple days, with a raw and damp wind from the northeast, mixed in with showers. I can't tell ya "80 and Sunny" everyday, though I wish I could. And nah, I can't make weather neither, although I think that would be totally and awesomely and wickedly cool. If you run into me on the street, you'll always get the weather truth, even if it's ugly, softened with a smile and maybe a lame joke.

So how 'bout this Hurricane?

Yup, we have a new one. Danielle. I think this one swims with the fishes, quite literally. Right now our fourth (active season? really??) named storm of the year scoots east of Bermuda this weekend.

Silver Lining Section -- we warm up at the end of the week AND the sun returns. See you on the tv, the facebook, the twitter (cknowles11) and ain't we so connected!

Yours in weather,
Chris Knowles

All the elements were there for a major severe weather event. We had the moistness, the instability, a favorable jet stream and a strong cold front. The Storm Predication Center put us under a moderate risk for severe weather. Tornado watches were posted throughout the North East. And then -- strong winds -- and then -- nothing. Well, Orange and Rockland counties got beat up with downed power lines. But all and all, nothing to write home about.

The prefrontal rain and storminess just broke apart as it approached the City, and that was all she wrote. It happens.

Now we can expect great weather for the first part of the week, with sunshine and cooler conditions. Enjoy it before next weekend's heat wave.

Yours in weather,
Chris

Pretty awesome weekend as far as weather goes. Yeah, saw a few spot showers move through Monday night. But near record temps and plenty of sun sort of made up for it, I would think.

Saw a bunch of sailors in the City. Bought a few rounds after work to say thank you. It's fun to see these young dudes roll into Gotham for this first time. They see Metropolis a lot differently than we do. Seems like when they see places like Wall Street, Times Square, the Chrysler Building and Central Park; their job takes on a deeper meaning. Look I'm not suggesting that New York is the center of the universe, or that these brave and determined young folk fight for our right to lay claim to the home of the free world. But I think it means something to them to see up close and personal urban American landmarks that they've only previously seen through the eyes of Hollywood.

See, people live here-- American and otherwise -- in the shadows of certain symbols of freedom and liberty. So seamen -- thanks for coming to hang, and thanks for your service. The next one is always on us.

Yours in Weather,
Chris

Pools are opening, oceans are beckoning and the weather is cooperating. Memorial Day will be quite decent, temps in the 80's -- then maybe a night time shower or a passing t-storm north and west of the City.

My kids spent Sunday at the pool. After slamming down hot dogs and Sponge Bob popsicles, they went home to nap, only to wake up hours later to do it all again. God Bless their mother for dealing with them and their caravan of essentials that must travel wherever they go. Kids are like little hoarders. They must recreate their home setting no matter where they go. Pack rats.

While we're enjoying the awesome weather, let's take a sec to realize why some of us are off Monday. We remember those who died in our country's service, and honor them for it. My grandfather "Jake" fought in World War II. He's nearly 90 and can still remember the names of his friends that made it, and those who did not. Thanks, Pop -- to you and everyone who's served our great nation.

Yours in Weather,
Chris

Who's ready for summer?

Ready or not, temps are creeping up this week. On average, we typically hit the lower 70's for an afternoon high in Central Park. By midweek, we'll be nearly 10 degrees better than that.

This is all leading up to Memorial Day Weekend, or the unoffical start of the summer season. While today marks the start of National Hurricane Preparedness Week, it's also the start of National Safe Boating Week. It's the National Weather Service's way of saying welcome to summer... have a good time... but be safe.

Warmest ever New York Memorial Day? 1942. 92 degrees.

We're still a week away, and I don't know about you, but I'm ready for the warm up.

Yours In Weather,
Chris

So... back in the Weather Center after some time off. Got to spend time with Mom and Dad, and Grandparents. They are 89 and 90, and will have been married 70 years in September. Amazing.

Hurricane Preparedness Week begins Sunday. Can tropical weather hit us? Surely. Remember Gloria in '85? After coming ashore at the Outer Banks, it made additional landfalls on Long Island and Connecticut. Hurricane season begins June 1st. Hopefully we won't have much to talk about this year.

What did the hurricane say to the other hurricane?
I have my eye on you.

Yours in Weather,
Chris

So... Mother's Day 2010 ... 51 degrees, WNW winds 20 to 30mph, with gusts to 45mph. I refuse to talk about wind chills in May.

What's the reason? For starters an unusually intense cold front, and an upper level Low over the Northeast, with high pressure building in from Canada into the Great Lakes. You stick a strong Low next to a strong High; you get strong winds. It's called a pressure gradient. It's also called a somewhat bummer of a day for Moms.

Me? I was kinda bummed that I had to work and couldn't hang with Moms who lives a few states away. Then I looked out the window of the train on the way to work and saw a cemetery. There, groups of children and adults brought flowers to graves of Mothers and Grandmothers. You feel me?

We have phones, emails, twitter, facebook, skypes and the good ol' fashion United States Postal Service to tell Mom we love her and appreciate her. Distance doesn't matter, and gosh darn it the cold shouldn't either.

In the meantime, I will try to warm it up a bit in the Five Day.

Yours in Weather,
Chris Knowles