Recap of the "Mets' Key Stretch": The One Week Mark...
Last week my esteemed colleague Bobby wrote a rather timely blog about a critical stretch in the Mets season beginning June 9th against the Phillies.
Big Bad Bobby argued that the 28 games between June 9th and July 9th could go a long way in deciding the Mets season (quick correction: apparently there are 29 games in that span, not 28).
To recap, beginning June 9th, the Mets had/have series’ against the Phillies, Yankees, Orioles, Rays, Cardinals, Yankees again, Brewers, one game against the Pirates, the Phillies again and the Dodgers.
With the exception of the Orioles and the Pirates, all of those games are against teams with winning records – so Bobby was definitely justified in calling this a critical stretch.
Seeing how we’re one week (7 games) into said stretch, I thought now might be a good
time for a “Mets Critical Stretch Progress Report – ¼ of the Way Done” Edition.
At the quarter pole, the Mets are 3-4, winning their games at a .428 clip.
Obviously this is a small sample size and that .428 winning percentage doesn’t mean all that much. However, I’m presenting it for the simple fact that it allows me to brag around the office about how I’m a fantastic prognosticator and know more about the Mets than the many supposed Met “fans” that envelop me daily here at PIX Sports.
You see, when Bobby posted that blog, I took the opportunity in the “comments” section to both give my prediction on how the Mets would do during “The Stretch” and to solicit predictions from our readers and staff.
Now, despite my pleadings, only Lolita gave a prediction – and boy was it an optimistic one!
To recap**: Lolita said the Mets would go 17-11, finishing with a .607 winning percentage. Yours truly picked the Amazin’s to finish a not so amazin’ 12-16, a winning percentage of….you guessed it…. .428!!
(**Keep in mind these predictions were made under the assumption that it was a 28 game stretch – not 29).
So what have we learned? Through the first week of the Mets “Key Stretch,” you can firmly put both the Mets and our esteemed anchor, Lolita Lopez, in the LOSERS COLUMN. The winner, as is often the case…ME!
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UPDATE: Lastly, in light of the discovery that the “Key Stetch” is actually 29 games instead of 28, both Lolita and I have updated our predictions.
As champion, I went first and decided to add another loss to my prediction. I say Mets finish 12-17.
In true cheater fashion, Lolita has decided to copy the pick of the champ and also add a loss to her guess. Lolita says the Mets finish 17-12.
We’ll keep track of the Mets during the “Key Stretch” and offer progress reports on both the Amazin’s themselves…and more importantly, the fight for office bragging rights.
And lastly, if anyone still wants to make a pick as to how the Mets will fare during “The Stretch,” go ahead and add it to the comments below. You and your pick will be included in future progress reports….even though you joined late : ) .
Matt Estreich for The Huddle
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Comments: 7
Matt: Rightly blasting my math-BUT-at this point, I would tend to agree. Even if the Metsies sweep the O's-I'm going with 13-16 AT BEST in the stretch. Lolita, forever the more optimistic, will be disappointed but not as emotionally crushed as I will be if the Mets are 8-10 games back on July 9th. Still, to call Lolo a LOSER is like calling Rosie O'Donnell svelte-totally untrue and unnecessary. Lolo is a fan who still roots with her heart. Me? I invented "Oh, the pain!" LONG before WFAN'sJoe Beningo was accepted to the Connecticut School of Broadcasting.
The Mets have to prove they can play consistent baseball AND they can beat the Phils. Start praying for the Mild Card, Mets fans!
Oh Modest Matt...only a few games into the 29 game stretch and already trying to flex. I do root with my heart but with my head as well. The losses, some terrible, have many times been because of the Mets themselves. Were there two losses to the Phillies? Yes. One in the 11-th, one in 10 innings...against a solid team whose players are ALL healthy. Is it still an "L" in the books? Again, yes. But I see the Mets righting the ship and with people coming OFF the D-L for a change, making a run for the division. I give him credit: Matt is a predicting fushia-wearing fool who has the numbers game down. This time, let's hope the Mets keep him off the mark. Final note: I am not bothered by the loser label because I am winner in life.
With all due respect, we cannot continue the Jerry Manuel refrain about "treading water" until we get players back. When is a team fully healthy? The New York Mets had its' core players, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delagado each play 159 games or more in 2008. Did the Mets make the playoffs? Yes, you can blame the bullpen, but this is only proof that it is always something. Every interview I hear from Jerry Manuel, he laments the health of the team. It is whiney. It is boring. In the words of the immortal Brian Bruney, it is a "tired act." Jerry has the lament of a loser. He blamed the bullpen for HIS failure in 2008. Now, he is blaming the injuries. Despite the injuries, the Mets have displayed with grit and an "edge" (Omar) over the past month. You play and talk about the players who are on the field and on the active roster. We are all aware of the injury status of the New York Mets. We do not need the incessant reminders by the great communicator, Jerry Manuel about the relative lack of health of his team. Do we know that Carlos Delgado will really return in 2009? If he does, what offensive production can we expect? Is there really a time table for Jose Reyes? Will Oliver Perez ever get his mechanics right? John Maine? Is Johan really healthy? Will J.J. Putz and Billy Wagner be ready to go by late August or September? Will everyone playing now stay healthy? Answer those questions and I will buy this when we get healthy nonsense. Jerry Manuel talks like a loser. By the way, Lolita is far from a loser. She is a winner in every respect. I just hope she does not fall into this when we get healthy mode, which it appears she is falling into into. Play with the team and players you have, ALREADY!!!!
Hey James - Of course, the fantastic Lolita is far from a loser. However, in the sports office predicting game, she is lagging behind yours truly.
She's been in the spotlight long enough, can't a lowly producer puff his chest up every now and then??
And, by the way, WHERE'S YOUR PREDICTION!!! Come on James, take a guess for the remainder of the "key stretch."
Matt e.
Your right James...the Mets do have to play with the players they have at this point. We can't keep waiting on maybe getting Delgado and Putz back. I am all for that so thanks for getting me on the right road. The "healthy" comment in my remarks was to point out that once the guys that we kind of "expect" back sooner (rather than later or never)...i.e. Reyes, Maine... the Mets, in theory, can only get better.
Ok, Matt. With 20 games remaining in this key stretch of games, effective 6/19 hence, I predict a 10-10 record. Obviously I have carved out the 3-6 start to this 29 game stretch.
Lolita, theoretically speaking, the Mets are befuddling. I have difficulty foreseeing the return of many of the players. Even if a player such as Jose Reyes returns, how can we measure his abilty and level of play. His legs are a major component of his play. If he is not 100%, his play will be compromised. John Maine threw 60 pitches in a simulated game in PSL this afternoon and felt a "pinch." Thus, he will not be coming off the DL Monday, and may be disabled for another two weeks. Oliver Perez threw three shutout innings (48 pitches) and looked good. Could it be that Ollie returns to active duty before John? This would be something we did not expect. It is just my philosophy about baseball, you discuss the players who are playing.
Thank you, Mr. James. Your prediction has been noted.