With A-Rod, The Truth Is In The Numbers
Like my old man is known to say, baseball is the only sport where statistics really matter.
So to that end, can we analyze Alex Rodriguez’s stats to determine whether he’s telling the truth about using steroids for ONLY three seasons?
I took a look at A-Rod’s career stats from his “Texas Era” and put them against the numbers he’s compiled since joining the Yanks in 2004.
Texas AVG HR RBI
2001 .318 52 135
2002 .300 57 142
2003 .298 47 118
Yankees AVG HR RBI
2004-08 .303 41.6 123.2 (Per season averages)
It’s pretty clear when you look at the stats that A-Rod’s numbers from 2001-03 were inflated. If you remove THOSE THREE SEASONS from his career stats, A-Rod’s average numbers should look something like this:
- .305 AVG/36-40 HR/115-125 RBI
With 2001-03 removed, A-Rod’s ADJUSTED career averages jive pretty well with the numbers he’s put up during his Yankee tenure. On the surface, they support Rodriguez’s claim that he’s been clean since coming to the Bronx.
However, there is one aberration during A-Rod’s Yankee Years: 2007.
In 2007, Rodriguez batted .314, hit 54 HRs and drove in 156 runs. That home run total is the 2nd best of A-Rod’s career (57 in 2002) and the RBI total is his greatest ever.
Remove 2007 from A-Rod’s YANKEE career and all of a sudden his AVERAGE Yankee season looks like this:
-.300/38.5/115
That means that in 2007, A-Rod exceeded his average Yankee season by 15.5 HRs and 41 RBI.
To me, those numbers stick out like a sore thumb. In fact, they look alarmingly like the stats A-Rod compiled during his Texas (steroid) years.
In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Yankee fan and I want to believe A-Rod when he says he’s been clean in the Bronx. But with a) this statistical evidence, and b) Rodriguez’s iffy history when it comes to telling the truth, how can we believe A-Rod didn’t use as a Yankee?...especially in 2007.
I know he hasn’t failed a drug test since 2004. But is it beyond the realm of possibility to suspect A-Rod (who certainly has the money to do so) had access to a performance enhancing drug not yet known to the anti-doping world?
With him, you never know.
Matt Estreich for The Huddle
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Comments: 1
Alex Rodriguez is only one of one hundred and four that got caught. I want to see the entire list. And I want to know who released it. The fact that the government is only going after a select few is rediculous.
I remember hearing about steriod questions and East European Olympic sports in the sixties. I also remember high school friends that took steriods and got huge in one summer in '79. Cheating has been in professional sports long before Alex Rodriguez was born. The difference now is that media can make money now talking about what has always existed.
Steriods and other substances will never go away but they can be better controlled. All professional sports need to adopt olympic testing standards. I realize the unions and owners have the ultimate power in this conversation but the consumer needs to have more influence.
As far as records are concerned; no records should count if a player ever tests positive for any banned of illegal substance.
We are in a recession. How about saving money and not going to games, not buying team logo wear, and not paying for sports cable channels. That's right the fans of every sport should vote with their wallet. Why give the corporations and millionaire players a penny more?