Stay at the shallow end of the pool, Mets fans

You don’t have to be an Olympic swimmer to know that the Amazins have no depth. They CAN win-if nobody gets hurt. If Reyes, Wright or Beltran (hope his knees are alright) is lost for any part of the season, Shea will be a ghost town in September. There are already question marks in the lineup. Moises Alou is on “vacation” for a month recovering from a hernia. Meanwhile, Schneider is defense first at the plate. Ramon Castro is a good hitter-but he had health issues last year and starts 2008 on the DL. Until he shows me otherwise, I assume Ryan Church can’t hit lefties.

Delgado: Most guys would be happy with Delgado’s 24 homers and 80+ rbi last year. Keep in mind, Carlos struggled with injuries and at the plate in big chunks last season before hitting a pedestrian .258. Can we trade to get Mike Jacobs back right now? Letting young, speedy Ruben Gotay go was an out and out FOOLISH move by Omar Minaya. Luis Castillo is aging and over rated. Gotay may not turn out to be Joe Morgan-but the arch rival Braves wasted no time picking him up. Letting Gotay get away seems as spiteful as not letting Aaron Heilman start a game with all the injuries the Mets had the last few years. We don’t know what Angel Pagan is yet. Marlon Anderson (a TERRIFIC pinch hitter), Endy Chavez and Damian Easley are good role players, but that’s all they are. The team better get and stay healthy. If you’re a Mets fan. you know a meaningless game at Shea in September is about as fulfilling as going hunting with Dick Cheney-WITHOUT a bulletproof vest.

READ MORE AFTER THE JUMP...

I am glad that Pelfrey will be the 5th starter. The Mets need youth, and El Duque, terrific as he is, can’t stay healthy. This could be Pelfrey’s last real chance to shine.

The rest of the staff should be good to AWESOME. Hopefully Willie Randolph will remember he played in an era where guys completed games. This might save the team Billy Wagner’s 5 or 6 big blown saves a year, but annoy Wagner’s agent at contract time. Santana, Maine and Perez are all capable of 220+ innings. The Mets MUST win every start Johan makes-won’t happen of course, but should be in every game the lefty makes. He claims he’s healthy, but I am not sold on Pedro until I see it for myself. He better be.
Heilman and Feliciano are more than capable setting up Wagner-even if Duaner Sanchez misses a long stretch still recovering from that infamous 2006 ‘food run’ in Miami.

It’s a 3 team race in the NL East-Mets, Phillies, Braves. Atlanta has a chance for a terrific middle of the lineup with Chipper Jones and Mark Texieira. Hudson is a stud at the top of the rotation. Smoltz is a torrid competitor. Glavine-like it or not Mets fans-can still get it done. Bobby Cox-look at the record- is clearly a better manager than Willie Randolph or Charlie Manuel. The Phils can and will hit-but pitching will be a problem. Last year’s closer Brett Myers is the Opening Day starter. Jamie Moyer and Tom Gordon are ready for Social Security. The Marlins have enough young talent to be annoying-remember last September?

The NL East pick-and I hope I am wrong-the Braves-Mets win 90-93 games and get the Wild Card. Like the Yanks in the AL, there is little room for error to get to the postseason. After losing in the NLCS 2 seasons ago and collapsing last September, the Mets will have to re tool to try to reach the Fall Classic.

The NL West may be the best all round division in baseball. The D-Backs, with or without Randy Johnson, will win the West and get to the World Series. It won’t be easy. The Dodgers, Padres and defending champ Rockies should be around all season. If the Mets don’t win the NL East, they may have an even tougher road snaring the Wild Card than the Yankees. Its that close. The Cubs will push the Brew Crew in the Central-Fielder and Braun win a slugfest.

DON’T QUOTE ME ON IT, BUT HERE ARE MY PICKS:

NL-Braves, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mets (Wildcard)

AL-Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Tigers (Wildcard),

NLDS RESULTS

Diamondbacks over Mets
Braves over Brewers

ALDS RESULTS:

Tigers over Red Sox
Indians over Mariners

NLCS:
Diamondbacks over Braves
ALCS:
Indians over Tigers

WORLD SERIES:
Indians over Diamondbacks

As always, that’s my story and I am sticking to it. Share your thoughts.