There is a belief that presidential politics runs in a 20-year cycle. I have never given the theory much mind until I heard President Obama’s national address on Libya this week. The President made his case for the military action he ordered against Libya and reminded the world that it was a multinational effort. There was another message in his speech that was equally important and far from subliminal: I am not President George W. Bush. When the President gave his reasons for not using the military to overthrow Moammar Gadhafi, he said, “To be blunt, we went down that road in Iraq.”

What he should have said was, we went down that road EVENTUALLY in Iraq. In attempting to distance himself from comparisons to George W. Bush, he sounded eerily like another president and another Bush: George H. W. Bush.

It was 20 years ago when the first President Bush, much like President Obama, touted a 34-nation coalition that drove Iraqi forces out of Kuwait. But then Bush was criticized for not finishing the job, for not sending American troops into Baghdad to take out Saddam Hussein.

It was 20 years ago to the day that Bush 41 seemed unbeatable; he enjoyed sky-high approval ratings, and the Democratic presidential field—dubbed “the Seven Dwarfs”—appeared too weak to mount a serious challenge. But a sluggish economic recovery and a primary challenge from Pat Buchanan fueled by extremists in his own party who were disappointed with the president’s moderate positions, coupled with the decision not to take out Hussein, caused the first President Bush to lose his reelection bid to one of the seven dwarfs, a young Southern governor named Bill Clinton.

Sound familiar?

We are a year and a half away from the 2012 elections, and a lot can happen. But at this moment in time, with a slow recovery, grumbling from the far left about Obama’s moderation and Gadhafi still in power, it is feeling like 1992 déjà vu.

Barack Obama won the presidency by campaigning as the anti-George W. Bush, but he is starting to look a lot like George H. W. Bush.

I just returned from a trip to Libya where I was given the opportunity to watch negotiations for a peaceful settlement to the conflict from the inside. It was an amazing experience and one that no journalist would ever pass up. My photographer John Frasse did a wonderful job under difficult circumstances. I will be reporting in detail on the trip on WPIX news tonight at Ten and then again tomorrow morning.

But I just want to share a couple of thoughts.

- As monumental as the events are in Libya playing out now to great scrutiny on a world stage, they are also very personal, wrought with all of the foibles of the human makeup. Many decisions are made or not made because of ego, pride, jealousy and sibling rivalry. The competition between Saadi and Saif Gaddafi, two of the leader’s sons, is driving much of what is happening in Libya right now. In a surprise twist, Saadi has emerged as the reasonable son with Saif taking a hard line position. A year ago, Saif was nominated for the Noble Prize. The fight seems as much for the future for Libya as a competition for a father's love.

- One night in Tripoli the sky was filled with anti-aircraft fire. I could see flashes from artillery across the street from my hotel. As I stood on my balcony, the moving red dots of tracer fire came too close for comfort and I moved inside. But I noticed that life went on without a flinch on the streets of Tripoli. Cars continued on the streets at a normal pace, no one ran for cover and the hotel staff went about their business as if the loud and constant gunfire were just crickets, normal for the night. When I was talking with some people from CNN in their broadcast center, gunfire went off again and not one of the staffers even turned. When I said, "Don't you hear that?" A photographer answered, "Not really. It's time for me to go home." He was on a plane two days later.

- Tripoli and Libya are beautiful. The people are friendly and kind. It is a shame that the country and its people are in this place. With so much wealth and resources, they could lead the world instead of being isolate from the world.

I also want to congratulate the 9/11 First Responders. The FealGood Foundation has raised the funds for a wall to be built in Long Island to honor and remember those who have died from the poisons of that fateful day. It is important for the world to remember the sacrifice of these brave men and women who ran to the scene of the World Trade Tower attacks when most ran away. They were told the air was safe. In fact, it was filled with toxins, many created on that day. Over 1,000 have died in the years that followed. They are dying still. The wall will be a reminder that the attacks took many more lives than those that were recorded on September 11, 2001 and the days after. I was asked to be part of the groundbreaking, but was travelling to Libya. I am proud that my station and our reports played a part in making the wall a reality.

On two personal notes, last Sunday WPIX won 10 Emmy awards. Congratulations to all at the station who won. I won 2 of the Emmys for the commentaries I write and produce for Tribune Broadcasting. The Emmys will only say my name because they are for Outstanding Individual Achievement, but no achievement is really the result of one individual. Kenton Young is the photographer who shoots 90% of the commentaries. I am proud to work with him, not only because of his talent, but because he serves our country as a National Guardsman. His input is invaluable. Dave Scanlon edits 90% of my commentaries. His production vision and editorial insight is what raises the commentaries to the level of Outstanding. Others have worked on the commentaries and they would not have happened without the vision of Tribune news managers Steve Charlier and Bill Carey. Thank you all.

The 2012 general election campaign officially began this week. It’s going to be about taxes and Medicare.

President Obama's was as much about damaging the Republican brand for the next election as it was about the deficit. From here on out you will hear the two themes from the President's speech right through the 2012 campaign - the Republican want to take social programs from the poor and give money to the rich in the form of tax breaks and tax cuts - and they want to get rid of Medicare.

Obama will use that as the framework for trying to cut a budget deal - to cut the budget but save Medicare. If he does it, he will now get the credit. If he doesn't, he will campaign on it all the way to re-election.

After a brief "strategy" meeting (aka campaign meeting) after the President's speech, a White House aide was quoted as saying: “Of course everyone wants to cut the deficit. The president wants to do it by raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans while maintaining 'Medicare as we know it' as an open-ended entitlement program. Republicans, under Ryan’s plan, would waste $1 trillion by holding the wealthiest harmless, and would dismantle Medicare, the epitome of national community, by turning it into an underfunded, easily-downsized voucher plan."

This debate will get ugly and it will extend into next fall and that is the way the Obama campaign team wants it - even after that, the president would welcome if this year’s budget debate extended past the October 1 deadline and lingered into the spring of 2012.

Team Obama now has a strong message - one handed to him by the Republicans - they GOP now has to regroup and start to the politics of 2012.

It is bewildering. Donald Trump? President? Even as he stokes the birther claims, his poll numbers as an honest-to-god GOP presidential contender are climbing.

CNN has him tied with Mike Huckabee at 19% among Republican hopefuls. Sarah Palin is a distant third at 12%. And since Huck isn't running, Trump is the font runner. Let that thought ferment in your brain for a moment. (from The Atlantic)

Last week's Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that, among GOP primary voters, Trump is tied for second with Mike Huckabee at 17 percent support and trails leader Mitt Romney (21 percent) in a nine candidate race.

That follows Public Policy Polling's result yesterday showing the celebrity mogul giving the Republican frontrunner "a run for his money" in New Hampshire, where Trump also came in second.

So, at what point does the political press corps have to start taking Trump seriously?

Sure, it's just another poll many months away from any actual Republican primaries. But there will be endless and very important political prognostication about other candidates who do well in opinion polls, because--other than fundraising--that's all there is to talk about.

The reason Trump continues to be thought of as a joke (other than that he's conveniently timed his decision to when it would best help the ratings of his NBC reality show The Apprentice) is that he's riding a wave of skepticism about Obama's citizenship--a position a wide swath of people from New York Times editor Bill Keller to soon-to-be ex-Fox News personality Glenn Beck thinks is patently insane.

But, according to the PPP poll, 42 percent of New Hampshire Republicans say they are sure Obama wasn't born in the U.S. and another 23 percent aren't sure. That's two thirds of the Republican party in a pivotal first-in-the-nation primary state. Trump appears to have carved out a very serviceable niche for himself as a primary strategy.

Too bad there's no way it could possibly work in the general election. Right?

Reprinted from Mary Sanchez of the Kansas City Star:

You can read about it in the Bible, and it remains true to our very day. Rape is an integral part of war, a favored tactic to demoralize an enemy army or population.

Mass rape is never quite acknowledged in the glorious accounts of the victors, and the shame of it impels the defeated not to dwell on its memory. Often it’s left to historians to dredge up its horrors, or to a handful of victims that demand justice. Only recently has rape in wartime become a topic for sustained discussion, much less systematic prosecution as a war crime.

But now there is Libya and Eman al-Obeidy.

Is her name unfamiliar? If you pay attention to the news on television, you might recognize her strained face and her anguished cries. She is the woman who last month was dragged out of a Tripoli hotel as she desperately tried to relay to international press the story of her kidnap and rape and (and the kidnap and rape of numerous other Libyan women) by henchmen of Col. Moammar Gadhafi.

Despite the risks to her safety, Obeidy bravely made her way to the hotel to tell her story of being raped and sodomized by Libyan security forces. Cameras caught the scene as government thugs beat and kicked reporters who tried to protect Obeidy.

It seems she was picked up at a checkpoint because her accent gave her away as being from the east of Libya, the center of the rebellion against Gadhafi. “Let the men from eastern Libya come and see what we are doing to their women and how we rape them,” are the words Obeidy attributed to her attackers.

Broadcast around the world, the incident forced the Libyan government to follow a hackneyed script of denial and damage control. She’s lying. She’s a drunk, a thief. Then the inevitable: She’s a prostitute. Libyan government operatives circulated a home video of a belly dancer, claiming the dancer was Obeidy and that the tape was a pornographic film.

Right. The world is not buying it.

The truth is that Obeidy is a law school graduate. She’s also fortunate. Her well-timed outburst before international reporters quite possibly spared her life, and may spare her from the fate that awaits most Libyan women who are raped: being shuttered behind closed doors, sent to live in rehabilitation centers as if they were the criminal, not the victim. Obeidy is a symbol now.

Men have long been the main instigators of war, but women often bear its most gruesome scars. A 1996 UNICEF report, titled “Sexual Violence as a Weapon of War,” declared:

“From [recent] conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina to Peru to Rwanda, girls and women have been singled out for rape, imprisonment, torture and execution. Rape, identified by psychologists as the most intrusive of traumatic events, has been documented in many armed conflicts including those in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Cyprus, Haiti, Liberia, Somalia and Uganda.”

Rape has been used as a method of spreading HIV/AIDS, to contribute to ethnic cleansing and human trafficking as women are forced into prostitution. And, yes, American GIs too have participated in this crime, most notably during the Vietnam War.

The striking thing about Obeidy is that she is not backing down. Nor is her family disowning her or accepting the dishonor that traditional societies impose on the victims of rape. The family reportedly has refused bribes offered in exchange for denouncing their daughter. She has refused bribes to implicate the rebels in her assault.

A troubling aspect of Obeidy’s story is that there are others like her being detained and raped, whose names we don’t know. One such victim is a 16-year-old girl Obeidy said helped free her by untying her hands. The girl, she said, was also sexually attacked but was fearful and far less willing to fight back or escape.

We can hope that the bravery of Eman al-Obeidy, her dogged determination to use the media to expose the Libyan regime’s atrocities, will help the world denounce rape as a crime of war.

Go to www.facebook.com/LetEmanGoHome

I urge everyone to read a stunning expose by two Pulitzer Prize winning investigative reporters in the Philadelphia Inquirer. It explains why America has a two tier tax system that is unfair.

Read the article and you will understand why the current debate over the tax rate for the wealthiest Americans is a bogus argument. You could actually reduce the rate and just get rid of many deductions and corporate loopholes and we could balance the federal budget.

Here is an excerpt:

One of the more egregious falsehoods being peddled by the corporate tax cutters is that companies doing business in the United States are taxed at an exorbitant rate. Not so. Though the United States has one of the highest statutory rates on the books at 35 percent, the only fair way to measure what companies actually pay is their effective rate - what they ultimately pay after deductions, credits, and assorted write-offs. By that yardstick, companies in the United States consistently pay taxes at rates lower than corporations in Japan and many nations in Europe.

In its most recent filing, Exxon Mobil Corp., the global energy giant, reported income of $34.8 billion before taxes on total revenue of $310.6 billion for 2009. Its U.S. income tax bill: Zero. Actually, it was a little better than that. Exxon Mobil claimed a tax benefit of $838 million, while it paid $15.8 billion in income taxes to other countries. General Electric Co. did equally well. Its report to the SEC showed income before taxes of $10 billion on total revenue of $155.3 billion. Like Exxon Mobil, GE reported no U.S. income tax paid. And like Exxon Mobil, GE also reported a tax benefit, albeit a little larger at $1.1 billion.

Oil drilling is returning to the Gulf of Mexico, but slowly.

One year after BP's Macondo well blew out -- claiming 11 lives and sparking a ban on deepwater drilling -- 11 new deepwater and 49 shallow water drilling permits have been issued, according to the federal agency that oversees offshore drilling.

Louisiana, which accounts for most of the Gulf's oil workers, has 320,000 people either directly or indirectly employed in the oil and gas industry.

When the moratorium took effect last summer, many of those jobs were on the line.

Five of the 33 deepwater drill rigs did end up leaving the Gulf. But most workers managed to hang onto their jobs, because the industry redeployed them to focus on maintenance work, John said.

The government had stopped granting permits to drill new oil and gas wells, saying it needed time to reform a regulatory agency that was rife with conflicts of interest and too lax in its oversight.

Those reform efforts are ongoing. So far they have included splitting the agency into two parts to separate the revenue collection division from the enforcement unit, strengthening safety and environmental requirements and hiring more inspectors.

Permits for shallow water wells resumed last summer, albeit it at a slower pace than many in the industry would have liked. The first deepwater permit since the spill was issued in February.

Michael Bromwich, the chief regulator, said on Tuesday that the government waited to start issuing deepwater permits until the industry was equipped to handle another accident.

The Macondo blowout showed that the industry was unprepared to deal with a deepwater accident. The well gushed for months, ultimately spewing some 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf.

Dealing with a deepwater accident requires capping a well quickly and channeling the oil to the surface -- much like BP's (BP) inverted funnel finally did last summer, nearly three months after the well began to spew. Systems like that have just become available industrywide, Bromwich said, speaking before the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Environmentalists have been pleased with the pause in drilling and efforts to tighten the regulation, although they say more needs to be done, including greater conservation efforts and measures to move the country away from oil.

And they note that while the drilling of new oil wells was halted last year, oil production from existing wells in the Gulf reached 1.6 million barrels a day -- an all time high.

Ultimately, oil production will suffer only modestly from the moratorium.

I have started the list.

The expiration date on "Whatever" is officially up. Along with "Talk To The Hand." Both get sent into the stale words and phrases file.

The language police have also deemed that "Dude" should not be used by anyone over 50 with the sole exception of Jeff Bridges.

"Hip" should only be used if you are Paul Schafer, Beyonce or if you fall and break one.

And "Peace Out?" Please.

Keep adding words and phrases to the list and I will use them in future reports.

Gas prices continue to soar ahead of the holiday weekend. So much so that President Obama has created a task force to make sure consumers aren't being ripped off.

Across the country, the average price for a gallon of gas is now at $3.84 a gallon creeping closer to the all-time high of $4.11 set back in 2008. Here in Eau Claire drivers are paying $3.94 for a gallon of regular at most gas stations. On Thursday, Obama promised the attorney general would look into any cases of price gouging.

"That includes the role of traders and speculators. We are going to make sure that no one is taking advantage of the American consumers for their own short-term gain," says Obama.

Each dollar increase in oil typically translates to an extra four cents per gallon at the gas pump. Analysts expect the national average to climb above four dollars a gallon soon.

One group being blamed for higher gas and oil prices is speculators. Those are people or companies that buy future shares of a commodity, like oil, based on whether they think the price will go up or down. Similar claims were made in 2008 when oil and gas prices hit record highs.

That's caused oil and gas prices to go up substantially. In March, oil topped $100 a barrel.

In 2008 oil prices hit a record high of $147 a barrel. As a result gas went up to more than four dollars a gallon. The market corrected itself and in a matter of months, gas was under two dollars. So could we see this happen again?

Not this time. Unless the President or Congress gets directly involved, gas prices are going up to near $5.00 a gallon this summer.

The Royal Wedding is dominating the news. Lindsay Lohan is going to jail. And we seem to have forgotten Libya. So maybe you didn't notice that we have sent Drone planes to help the rebels.

We are a little bit more involved - and that's what happens with America and war - we slowly become more and more involved until we are all in.

We say it is about Democracy and preventing a slaughter. We say it is humanitarian. But dozens of people were gunned down on the streets of Syria crying for democracy and we did nothing. We chose Libya because we hate Gaddafi and because we want to control the oil.

But we can't come out and say that and so we slowly get more involved, But we have taken sides in a civil war and that is always a dangerous thing to do.

Anyway, I just wanted to let you all know that we are seeping resources and money into Libya - now back to the Royal Wedding.

Now that Barrack Obama has produced his birth certificate, what happens now?

Is the issue dead and over or will it only add to the suspicion?

And what about Donald Trump? Has his status been elevated? Or is he done.

I think it is way to early to answer any of these questions. The spin war has already begin and it is fascinating to watch MSNBC and Fox News take opposite sides. But I would love to know what you think. Because every time I think I have this story and Donald Trump figured out - things change.

Come this time tomorrow it will all thankfully be over. The American media obsession with the Royal Wedding would be fascinating if it didn’t swallow up news coverage of everything else. Now it is just annoying. Kate and William seem nice enough, very unroyal in many ways. But I owe them what I owe every other young couple whom I don’t know: my complete and utter ambivalence. The network news executives have visions of Charles and Diana dancing in their heads. Specifically, they remember the huge ratings they got back in 1981. As much as they have tried to make Kate Middleton the “new Diana,” the ratings will be about half what they were in 1981.

However, there will be a strong segment of the population in this country, mostly women, who have watched and learned everything about the couple and will be up early to take in every second of the ostentatious pageantry that runs through the thick of an austerity program that has cut many social programs in Great Britain. And that’s why many across the pond don’t give two hoots about the wedding or the royals. A Reuters poll showed that only 22 percent of Brits say they’re making plans to watch. And two-thirds of the city of London is closing up shop and getting out of town. Why? They don’t want to deal with the American tourists.

That’s right. One million American tourists have booked flights to England just to catch a glimpse of the couple. It’s been dubbed America’s Royal Wedding fever. I and many others have another symptom—Royal Wedding nausea. I am certain that is why Royal Wedding sick bags are one of the most popular souvenirs in London. You know, just in case you can’t make it to the “throne,” complete with the Kate and William toilet seat. (There are also Kate and Willie condoms, which will hopefully prevent future royal weddings.)

Americans, not the English, are responsible for the continuing existence of the Royal Family. With no real governmental power, they are a tourist attraction. There have been calls in Great Britain to stop giving public dollars to Buckingham Palace. The Royals get well over $50 million a year for expenses and upkeep. But the argument against that has always been that the Royals bring in 10 times more than that in American tourist dollars.

I blame Disney. They have promoted this princess fantasy to every little girl in this country. But believe me, the real Royals are no Snow Whites. They come from a line of oppressive rulers who have littered history with beheadings, slave trading, genocide and looting, not to mention several attempts at world domination.

Remember that we fought a bloody war to finally rid ourselves of Mother England. A couple centuries later, it’s time to cut the cord completely. You can start by sleeping in tomorrow.

Afghanistan is the longest war in American history and it seems to drag on without reason. But now there is a sign that it may be coming to an end.

When it was announced that Leon Panetta will take over for Defense Secretary Robert Gates. something else happened that seemed to make little sense. Gen. David Petraeus was named the new head o fhte CIA. It was a strange move to give that position to a military man, especially since he was just named to lead the war effort in Afghanistan less than a year ago.

But Petraeus is the one who said we couldn't start drawing down troops in Afghanistan until 2014, despite the fact that President Obama wanted to start the reductions this summer. Now with Petraeus out of the way, Obama can reduce the troop level significantly before the 2012 general election campaign.

Lt. General John Allen has been named to take Petraues's place. He is the key. Maybe it is wishful thinking, but I think he has been put there to start bringing troops home immediately. If he does - he is a national hero.

DEAR MR. PRESIDENT,

NICE JOB SIR. YOUR LEADERSHIP IN TAKING OUT OSAMA BIN LADEN IS COMMENDABLE. IT WILL BE A DEFINING MOMENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY AND IN YOUR PRESIDENCY.

I SEE YOUR POLL NUMBERS FOR LEADERSHIP HAVE GONE UP AND YOU DESERVE IT. TO BE FRANK, I THINK YOU HAVE BEEN INDECISIVE IN THE PAST WITH IRAN, EGYPT AND LIBYA. IN MY OPINION YOU BECAME COMMANDER IN CHIEF, IN FACT, AND NOT JUST IN TITLE, THIS WEEK.

THERE WILL BE SNIPING EVEN IN THE WAKE OF GREAT ACHIEVEMENT, TRY AND IGNORE IT. THIS EVENT TRANSECENDS POLITICS AND ONLY HURTS THOSE WHO USE IT TO SCORE CHEAP POINTS AS PARTISAN BEYOND REASON.

ON THAT POINT, PLEASE DON’T USE YOUR VISIT TO GROUND ZERO TO MAKE A POLITICAL SPEECH . THE SITE IS A GRAVEYARD FOR MANY OF THE INNOCENTS KILLED BY BIN LADEN ON 9/11 , TO USE THE SITE FOR PERSONAL GAIN WOULD BE AN INSULT.

IT WOULD BE BEST TO MAKE NO SPEECH AT ALL, BUT IF YOU MUST, MAKE IT SOMETHING MOMENTOUS BUT APPROPRIATE TO THE HALLOWED GROUND ON WHICH YOU’LL STAND. BEHIND YOU WILL BE CONSTRUCTION OF THE FREEDOM TOWER, A SYMBOL THAT AMERICA IS FINALLY RISING AGAIN AFTER GREAT TRAGEDY. WITH THE MONSTER WHO CAUSED THAT HEARACHE NOW DEAD, TAKE THIS MOMENT TO CONGRATULATE THE MEN AND WOMEN WHO WENT TO WAR TO AVENGE US FOR A JOB WELL DONE. AND THEN TELL THEM THEY ARE COMING HOME.

PRESIDENT BUSH ONCE STOOD WHERE YOU STOOD AND MADE A DECLARATION THAT JUSTICE WOULD BE DONE. THAT HURLED US INTO WAR WITH AFGHANISTAN ON A MANHUNT UNPRECEDENTED IN HISTORY.

THE MANHUNT IS NOW OVER. USE THE SAME SITE THAT WAS USED TO PROCLAIM WAR TO PROCLAIM PEACE.

YOU HAVE THE POWER, THE RIGHT AND THE MORAL OBLIGATION TO END THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN. SAY THAT – OR SAY NOTHING AT ALL

SINCERELY AND RESPECTFULLY, LARRY MENDTE