Obama and Paterson: The President Shows His Teeth

What a fascinating political sideshow it’s been the past few days, this dust up involving the White House and New York Governor David Paterson. President Obama reportedly sent word to Paterson, via an aide, that he shouldn’t run for election to a full term in 2010, because… well, because nobody likes him, respects him, or thinks he’s doing a remotely acceptable job. Okay, “nobody” is a strong word; but polls show Paterson has a roughly 20% approval rating, which is political terms is equal to.. nothing.

That fact right there is all that matters in this debate. That, and the new side of the President that this whole thing is presenting to America; not Obama the Orator, not Barack the Bridge Builder, but Barack Obama the ruthless political operator.

First, let’s look at how Paterson’s extreme unpopularity shoots down almost every analysis of what this White House intrusion means politically in New York and Washington. Let’s take the arguments I heard and read today:

• Obama had to take Paterson out, because otherwise, the accidental governor might really get his party’s nomination (which he insists he’s still going to pursue), and THAT might lead Rudy Giuliani to make his triumphant return to electoral politics with a run for the governor’s mansion-- because everybody knows Giuliani would drill Paterson in a general election—and THAT could lead to another Giuliani run for the White House in 2012 against….. BARACK OBAMA! So the president, according to this analysis, is protecting his flank from tough competition that could be facing him down the road.

My response?

First, Rudy Giuliani is not going to run for governor. You heard it here first. If I’m wrong, I’ll buy you a drink. But I’m not going to be wrong.

Secondly, David Paterson has no chance in hell of being the democratic nominee for governor in 2010. That ship hasn’t just sailed; it’s sunk. There’s not a serious Democrat in the state who doesn’t know that tonight. So why would the President bother smacking down a governor who won’t get his party’s nomination in a scenario that would allow him to run against a well-known Republican who won’t be running?

• President Obama is going to lose support among his most loyal voting block—African-Americans—by doing this to one of only two black governors in America.

My response? This one line from the results of a new Siena College poll:

“The poll found black voters would prefer someone else to Paterson by a 52%-25% margin.”

• Obama threw Paterson under the bus because he’s worried about the governor dragging down other Democrats running for re-election to Congress or the General Assembly.

Any president should be worried about losing members of his party in midterm elections, and with his health care reform effort not appearing to be destined for greatness, Obama should be also. Besides, as noted above, PATERSON WON’T BE THE NOMINEE! That would be Andrew Cuomo, he of the more than 70% favorability rating.

So, then, why WOULD the President take this unusual step of telling a governor that he needs to sit this one out? THAT’S where we say hi to Obama the Ruthless. David Paterson went against White House wishes on several occasions, most notably the debacle that was the appointment of a new U.S. Senator to replace Hilary Clinton. Obama did not want Kirsten Gillibrand to get the job; Paterson gave it to Kirsten Gillibrand. In doing so, he embarrassed Caroline Kennedy, who along with her Uncle Ted gave Obama the endorsement that turbocharged his run for the White House. Paterson’s inclusion of the President in his rant about how the media is trying to keep black politicians down might have broken the camel’s back.

Take all that into account, and remember that President Obama negotiated quite successfully the cutthroat politics of the South Chicago political machine on his way to becoming a U.S. Senator, and I think we’re finally seeing what makes him mad. If you’re going to butt heads with a (still) popular president, you’d better be pretty solid on your own turf. I think Obama got fed up with being dissed by someone who’s barely above water in his own political life. So the ax came down.

I don’t believe Obama’s going to be losing any sleep over this. There’s not much downside to whacking a politician with so few supporters. The upside is, it gives him a whole new image: Barry the Shiv. Maybe he’ll get tougher on those health care opponents now and do what a lot of people have been urging him to do with his congressional majorities: use sheer political power to sweep opponents and nuisances away.