Term Limits and Change Fatigue

I wrote a blog post three weeks ago when Mayor Bloomberg went public with his plan to overturn New York City’s term limits law, so he can run for a third term. Whatever you think of my opinions on the matter, I firmly stand by my final comments that “this isn’t going to be a slam dunk” for Bloomberg. (Wow, it’s fun quoting yourself!) Opposition has indeed sprung up from a number of places. But as you saw in the news today, a judge denied a legal effort to stop a city council vote on changing the term limits. That vote might take place as soon as Thursday, and since Speaker Christine Quinn supports Bloomberg on this, and since she probably wouldn’t schedule a vote unless the headcount was going her way, it might be a done deal (but with a likely possibility of after-the-fact legal challenges).

The pros and cons of the term limits issue are well known by this time, so let’s look instead at some of the psychological factors coursing through the electorate. Polls have shown New Yorkers favor term limits, which really shouldn’t be a surprise, since voters approved them twice during the 1990’s. But when asked if they want Mike Bloomberg to serve another four years, a majority say yes. Paradoxical, no? Well, yes, but also understandable. More after the jump.

This country, and this largest city in this country, are on the cusp of the most enormous changes we’ve witnessed in quite a few generations. It’s looking more and more like we’re going to elect the first African-American President, something that even many of Barack Obama’s most fervent supporters would have never believed they’d see in their lifetimes. And it’s happening at the same time as an economic collapse the likes of which.. well, the likes of which most people wouldn’t believe they’d see in their lifetimes. No matter how you cut it, that’s a lot of change.

Maybe, for a majority of New Yorkers, it’s enough for now. While we pride ourselves on our resiliency and our ability to reinvent, a change at the top at City Hall at this point might be too much to compute for a lot of people. The best thing Mayor Bloomberg might have going for him in his term limits fight is a kind of “change overload” descending on the city’s collective psyche.

The argument could certainly be made that change overload or not, it’s not a valid reason to make an end run around laws put in place by voters. I would probably make that argument myself. But, tonight, I’m not going to question why a majority of New Yorkers seem willing to let this happen.. I’m only going to say again, it’s understandable.